Nada Fouad vs Esther Adeshina

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Nada (4.5) is ~22.2% while we estimate ~48%
• • Estimated EV at current odds is strongly positive (+1.16 per unit)

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market price and our estimated probability yields strong positive EV
• + Both players' profiles suggest parity, supporting a contrarian take against the heavy favorite

Cons

• - Research set contains very limited detail (no H2H, injury notes, or contextual tournament info) increasing uncertainty
• - Market may be reflecting unreported factors (withdrawal risk, local conditions, or last-minute info) not present in the dataset

Details

We see a large market skew toward Esther at 1.18 (implied ~84.7%) despite both players having nearly identical profiles: career span and overall records of 10-21, and similar recent form on hard/clay. There is no injury or H2H information provided to justify such a heavy favorite. Given parity in results and surfaces, we estimate the matchup is much closer to even and assign Nada Fouad a materially higher win probability than the market-implied 22.2% (from 4.5). At our estimated true probability (48%), the home price 4.5 represents clear value (EV = 0.48*4.5 - 1 = +1.16 per unit staked). We therefore recommend the home side because the market appears to overestimate Esther by a large margin based on the available data.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form, implying a near-even matchup
• • Market heavily favors the away player at 1.18 (implied ~84.7%), which conflicts with the parity in the provided profiles
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information is present to justify the heavy market bias