Highlights

• • Required fair odds for home (per our estimate): 1.613; current is 1.57 (too short).
• • Underdog would need >43.9% true probability to be +EV at 2.28; we estimate ~38% — no value.

Pros

• + Conservative, neutral assumptions reduce risk of overestimating value
• + Clear threshold (1.613) to look for when markets move or enhanced prices appear

Cons

• - Limited information increases uncertainty — our estimates may be missing actionable context (surface, injuries, form)
• - Small margins: a slight change in estimated true probability could flip EV sign

Details

We have no external data beyond the quoted market prices, so we take a conservative approach. The market prices imply a home-win probability of ~63.7% (1/1.57) and an away-win probability of ~43.9% (1/2.28). Based on conservative assumptions (neutral surface/venue, no reported injuries or form edges), we estimate Nadia Kojonroj's true win probability at 62.0%. That implies fair decimal odds of 1.613. At the current home price of 1.57 the expected return would be negative (EV = 0.62 * 1.57 - 1 = -0.027), so there is no value on the favorite. To recommend a bet on the home player we would need at least 1.613; to recommend the underdog we would need to believe Anya Nelson's true win probability exceeds ~43.9% (we estimate her at ~38%), which we do not. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: home ~63.7%, away ~43.9%
• • No external data available (surface, injuries, head-to-head) — we use conservative neutral assumptions
• • Our conservative estimated home probability (62.0%) is below the market-implied level needed for positive EV at 1.57