Nahia Berecoechea / Olga Bienzobas Fernandez vs Elvina Kalieva / Gabriela Lee

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (86.7%) far exceeds what the player profiles suggest
• • Home at 4.62 becomes +EV if true win chance is only ~21.6% or higher; we estimate ~35%

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our estimated true probability yields strong EV
• + No evidence in the provided research to justify heavy favoritism for the away team

Cons

• - Limited data and no H2H or detailed doubles-team chemistry information increases uncertainty
• - If we have underweighted an unknown ranking/seeding factor, the market price could be justified

Details

We see an extreme market price for the away pair (1.154 decimal = 86.7% implied) that is inconsistent with the available player data: all four players show nearly identical career spans and similar win-loss records in the provided profiles, with no clear injury or form edge for the away team. Given parity on paper and no supporting information that the away team should be overwhelming favorites, we estimate the true match win probability for the home duo at 35%. At that probability the home line (4.62) produces value: EV = 0.35 * 4.62 - 1 = +0.617 (61.7% ROI). Conversely the away price would only be +EV if their true win probability exceeded ~86.7%, which is not supported by the data. We therefore recommend backing the home underdog at the quoted 4.62 because the market appears to overprice the away team relative to the evidence provided.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for away (86.7%) is implausible given similar player records
• • All four players display comparable career records and recent results in the provided data
• • No injuries, superior recent form, or H2H evidence in the research to justify the heavy favorite