Highlights

• • Players appear equivalent in the supplied data (records and surfaces)
• • Market heavily favors the away player despite no supporting evidence in the research

Pros

• + Large margin between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
• + No negative indicators (injury or surface disadvantage) in the provided research

Cons

• - Research is limited and contains minimal match-by-match detail, increasing uncertainty
• - Market may be reflecting information not present in the supplied sources (satellite data, withdrawals, odds movement)

Details

We find clear value on the home player Nahia Berecoechea because the provided research shows both players with essentially identical profiles (career spans, overall records 10-21, and surface experience), and there is no injury, H2H, or surface advantage information that differentiates them. Given those identical data points we estimate the true win probability for Berecoechea at 50%. The market price (home 4.7 decimal, implied win probability 21.3%) heavily underestimates her chance. At our 50% estimate, the minimum fair decimal odds are 2.00, so the offered 4.70 represents significant value (EV = 0.5 * 4.7 - 1 = 1.35 per unit stake). We therefore recommend the home side at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical reported records (10-21) and similar surface experience in the provided research
• • No injury, form edge, or H2H data is present to justify the market's heavy lean toward the away player
• • Market-implied probability for home (≈21.3%) is much lower than our estimated true probability (50%), yielding strong value