Nahyeong Cho vs Cheuk Ying Shek

Highlights

• • Market favorite (Shek) has a documented ~32% career win rate — large mismatch with 1.34 price
• • At our conservative 55% estimate for Cho, current 3.05 odds offer ~0.678 units EV per 1 unit staked

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market price and available performance data for the favorite
• + Conservative probability still produces meaningful positive EV at quoted home price

Cons

• - No provided data on Nahyeong Cho — our estimate could be materially off if Cho is weak or injured
• - Limited dataset and lack of surface/venue/injury information make this a higher-uncertainty play

Details

We find clear market value backing the home player (Nahyeong Cho). The market strongly favors Cheuk Ying Shek at 1.34 (implied ~74.6%), but the only available performance data for Shek shows an overall career win rate of 10/31 (~32%) and multiple recent losses, which argues that the market probability is heavily overstated. With no adverse information about Cho in the provided research and given Shek's poor form, we conservatively estimate Cho's true win probability at 55%, which implies fair odds of ~1.818. The offered home price of 3.05 is substantially higher than that threshold, producing a positive expected value (EV = 0.55 * 3.05 - 1 ≈ 0.678). We acknowledge elevated uncertainty because we lack direct data on Cho and match-specific factors (surface, injuries), so our probability is conservative relative to the market gap but still finds value at the quoted home price.

Key factors

• • Cheuk Ying Shek career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) indicates weak baseline probability
• • Market implies Shek ~74.6% to win (1.34) — appears overstated versus provided performance data
• • No match-specific info on Nahyeong Cho increases uncertainty but creates opportunity if Cho is standard-level