Highlights

• • Bookmaker-implied away probability (≈66%) looks high given near-identical profiles
• • Home at 2.37 converts to positive expected value on our 45% estimate

Pros

• + Clear numerical value at current home price versus our assessed probability
• + Decision rests on parity between profiles rather than speculative factors

Cons

• - Small edge only (≈6.7% ROI) — sensitive to minor estimation errors
• - Limited data and no H2H or contextual match info in the research increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Home 1/2.37 = 42.2%, Away 1/1.51 = 66.2%, combined overround ≈ 108.4%) to our assessment based solely on the provided profiles. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form shows similar losing runs and mixed serve numbers on hard and clay. There is no clear performance or injury edge in the research. Removing the bookmaker margin and judging on parity between players, we conservatively assign Naiktha Bains a 45% win probability (Justina Mikulskyte 55%). At the current home price of 2.37 this implies positive value: EV = 0.45*2.37 - 1 ≈ +0.0665 (6.65% ROI). The away price (1.51) requires an assessed win probability ≥66.2% to be +EV, which our assessment does not support. We therefore recommend backing the home player only because the market appears to over-favor the away player relative to two nearly identical profiles and recent form.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form in the provided data
• • Market implies a large edge for the away player (overround present); normalization suggests potential mispricing
• • No injuries, surface advantages, or H2H data provided to justify the away price of 1.51