Nana Kawagishi vs Natsumi Kawaguchi

Highlights

• • Current price for home (6.75) implies only ~14.8% — market and data disagree.
• • Conservative estimated true probability (20%) yields EV = +0.35 at current odds.

Pros

• + Large margin between our conservative fair odds (5.00) and market odds (6.75) creates clear value.
• + No injuries or clear form advantage listed for the away player in the provided research.

Cons

• - Limited data depth: small sample and identical profiles increase uncertainty in the true probability estimate.
• - Heavy market favorite may reflect outside information not present in the provided research (unseen seeding, late scratches, or local factors).

Details

Market prices make Natsumi Kawaguchi a near-lock (decimal 1.10, implied ~90.9%) despite the research showing both players have nearly identical profiles (10-21 records, same recent form and surfaces). With no injury information, no clear form edge, and identical career stats in the provided research, that market probability is not supported by the data. We conservatively estimate Nana Kawagishi's true win probability at 20% (0.20). At those odds the fair price would be 5.00 (1/0.20); the offered 6.75 therefore contains clear value. EV calculation using the current decimal 6.75: EV = 0.20 * 6.75 - 1 = 0.35 (35% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Because the research shows parity between the two players and no justification for a 90% market probability, we recommend the home upset at 6.75 as a value play.

Key factors

• • Both players have virtually identical career records and recent form in the provided research (10-21).
• • Research lists play on the same surfaces (clay, hard) — no surface edge identified.
• • Market implies an outsized probability for the away player (~90.9%) that is not supported by the available data.