Nanari Katsumi vs Kylie Collins
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Nanari Katsumi at 3.71 — her career experience and win-rate justify a higher true probability (36%) than the market-implied ~27%, producing ~33.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Market price (3.71) implies ~27% for Nanari; our estimate is 36%
- • EV at current odds is strongly positive (0.336)
Pros
- + Significant experience and much larger career sample favor Nanari
- + Current odds provide a clear margin above our required odds (min required 2.778)
Cons
- - Recent form entries in the provided research show losses for both players — adds short-term variance
- - Limited event-specific surface/venue details in the research increase uncertainty
Details
We see a large disconnect between the market price and fundamentals. The book market prices Nanari Katsumi at 3.71 (implied win probability ~27.0%) while our read of the provided player data gives Nanari a materially higher true chance. Nanari has an extensive career sample (559-507, 1066 matches) and experience across surfaces including hard courts; Kylie Collins has a much smaller sample (10-21, 31 matches) and a substantially weaker career win rate. Both players show recent losses in the limited recent entries, so form is mixed, but the experience and higher career win-rate for Nanari justify a higher probability than the market. We conservatively estimate Nanari's true win probability at 36% (Kylie 64%). At the quoted home odds of 3.71 this yields EV = 0.36 * 3.71 - 1 = 0.336 (33.6% ROI). By contrast, backing Kylie at 1.23 offers no value (market-implied ~81% vs our 64% estimate). Given the large difference between market-implied probability (~27%) and our estimate (36%), the home side represents positive expected value at current widely-available prices.
Key factors
- • Large career sample and higher career win-rate for Nanari (559-507 over 1066 matches)
- • Kylie has limited pro experience and a weaker overall record (10-21 in 31 matches)
- • Market-implied probability (27%) understates Nanari relative to our conservative 36% estimate
- • Both players show recent losses in the limited recent entries, increasing variance and match-level uncertainty
- • No head-to-head data provided; small-sample recent form increases risk despite long-term edge