Highlights

• • Shiraishi: better career record and serving metrics
• • Current away price (2.5) > fair odds threshold (≈1.818) for our model

Pros

• + Clear quantitative edge from higher win-rate and service stats
• + Large margin between fair odds and market odds (value present)

Cons

• - Both players have recent losses and limited context on head-to-head
• - Match-level variables (fitness, conditions) not detailed in provided data

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment based on the provided player profiles. The market prices imply Naoki Nakagawa (home) has ~67.3% chance (1/1.485) while Hikaru Shiraishi (away) is priced at 40.0% (1/2.5). From the supplied records, Shiraishi has a stronger overall win-rate (38-27 → ~58.5%) across more matches and better recent serving metrics, while Nakagawa's win-rate is lower (21-23 → ~47.7%) and his recent results show losses at higher-level events. We estimate Shiraishi's true win probability at 55% (0.55) and Nakagawa at 45% (0.45). At the current away price of 2.5 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.55*2.5 - 1 = 0.375), so the away side represents value versus the book that has overstated the home advantage. Key risks are small sample sizes, limited head-to-head context, and recent losses for both players, but the gap in historical win-rate and superior serving metrics for Shiraishi justify the implied edge.

Key factors

• • Shiraishi has superior overall win-rate (38-27 vs 21-23) across more matches
• • Recent match metrics show stronger serving performance for Shiraishi versus Nakagawa
• • Market overstates Nakagawa as favorite (implied 67%) despite weaker career win-rate