Naoki Nakagawa vs Mark Whitehouse

Highlights

• • Nakagawa estimated win probability ~68% vs market implied ~76%
• • No underdog evidence strong enough to justify backing Whitehouse at 3.21

Pros

• + Clear statistical edge to Nakagawa based on sample size and overall record
• + Surface experience (hard) is comparable for Nakagawa

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses which raises volatility in a single match
• - Whitehouse's small sample makes probability estimates noisy; limited upside for value

Details

We compare the market prices to our estimate of true win likelihood. The current market price for Nakagawa (1.309, implied ~76%) prices him as a clear favorite. Reviewing both players' limited profiles, Nakagawa has a larger match sample (44 matches, 21-23) and is experienced on hard courts; Whitehouse has fewer matches (16, 6-10) and weaker overall record. Recent listed results show both in poor form with recent losses, so we project Nakagawa to be the stronger player but not to the extent the market implies. We estimate Nakagawa's true win probability at ~68% (min required decimal odds 1.471). At the offered home price of 1.309 the expected value is negative (EV ≈ -0.11 per unit). The away price (3.21) would require Whitehouse to have ~31%+ true chance to be +EV; given his smaller sample size and worse record we do not find convincing evidence his true chance exceeds the market-implied ~31%. Given the negative EV on the favorite at current pricing and insufficient evidence of upside for the underdog, we recommend taking no side.

Key factors

• • Nakagawa has larger sample size and better overall win percentage than Whitehouse
• • Both players show recent losses; form is weak for both which increases matchup variance
• • Whitehouse's small match sample (16 matches) and inferior record reduce confidence that 3.21 offers true value