Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Naomi is ~67.3%; we estimate 72%
• • Positive EV at current decimal odds (1.485) with conservative assumptions

Pros

• + Korhonen's recent form and record indicate vulnerability
• + Current price (1.485) implies lower win probability than our estimate

Cons

• - Limited direct data on Naomi McKenzie in the provided research
• - Small margin of EV and potential unknowns (injury, conditions) increase variance

Details

We compare the market price (Naomi McKenzie 1.485 => implied 67.3%) to our assessment of true win likelihood. Cara Korhonen's available profile shows a 10-21 overall record and poor recent form (only 1 win in her last 10 matches), with most recent results losses on hard courts. There is no positive evidence in the research to suggest Korhonen is in form to upset a local favorite; Naomi is priced as the clear favorite. Given Korhonen's weak recent results and the home/favorite market position, we estimate Naomi's true win probability higher than the market-implied 67.3% and set it at 72%. At that probability, the fair decimal price is 1.389; the current offered 1.485 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.72 * 1.485 - 1 = 0.069 (≈6.9% ROI on a unit stake). We are conservative because Naomi's specific form and injury status are not provided, so we do not inflate the probability beyond 72%.

Key factors

• • Cara Korhonen's poor overall record (10-21) and weak recent form
• • Recent losses on hard courts suggest low confidence on this surface
• • Market prices Naomi as favorite; we estimate true probability moderately above implied