Naomi McKenzie vs Cara Korhonen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home favorite Naomi McKenzie at 1.595 — our 70% estimate yields ~11.7% ROI versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Korhonen has poor recent results and low career win rate
- • Current price for Naomi (1.595) implies a lower win probability than our estimate
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Opponent's documented poor form and record support backing the favorite
Cons
- - No direct data provided on Naomi McKenzie in the research, increasing uncertainty
- - Unreported factors (injury, conditions, exact surface, H2H) could shift probabilities
Details
We compare the market price (Naomi McKenzie 1.595, implied 62.7%) to our estimated win chance. Cara Korhonen's provided profile shows a 10-21 career record (roughly 32% win rate), a poor recent run with multiple losses on hard courts, and limited positive indicators. Given Korhonen's form and that the match is listed with Naomi as favorite, we estimate Naomi's true win probability at ~70%, which makes the current price (1.595) favorable. Using that probability, the bet yields positive expected value (EV = 0.70 * 1.595 - 1 = +0.1165). We acknowledge uncertainty due to lack of Naomi-specific data and any unreported injuries or conditions, but the available evidence indicates value on the home side at the quoted odds.
Key factors
- • Cara Korhonen's overall record 10-21 (≈32% win rate) indicates weakness
- • Recent form shows a string of losses on hard courts leading into this match
- • Market prices (Naomi 1.595 implied 62.7%) appear to underestimate Naomi relative to Korhonen's form