Highlights

• • Home price 1.14 implies ~87.7% win chance
• • We estimate Honda ~90% to win based on experience and surface familiarity

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-volume advantage for Honda
• + Both players listed on hard — favors the more active hard‑court competitor

Cons

• - Honda's overall career record is below .500, indicating vulnerability against stronger opposition
• - Edge is modest (≈2.6% ROI); variance and small sample for Otsuka create uncertainty

Details

We view Naoya Honda as a clear favorite based on the provided profiles: Honda has substantially more pro match experience (38 matches, 15-23) and recent play on hard courts, while Kentaro Otsuka has only one recorded pro match (0-1) on hard. The market price (home 1.14) implies a win probability of ~87.7%. Given Honda's superior match volume, hard‑court activity and Otsuka's extremely limited sample at this level and surface, we estimate Honda's true win probability higher than the market-implied figure. At our estimated probability (90%) the bet on Honda at 1.14 yields a small positive edge. We account for limited data quality and Honda's imperfect overall record, which makes the edge modest but present.

Key factors

• • Honda has far greater match experience (38 matches) versus Otsuka (1 match)
• • Both profiles show hard-court play; Honda has more hard-court activity and wins
• • Market-implied probability (87.7%) is slightly below our conservative estimate of Honda's win chance (90%)