Highlights

• • Market implies Bejlek ~71% but research shows near parity between players
• • Home at 2.80 exceeds our required fair odds (2.381) for positive EV

Pros

• + Clear numeric value against the bookmaker price for the home side
• + Both players' records and surface history in the research do not justify the heavy market bias

Cons

• - Research is sparse on recent form, H2H, and injury status which raises uncertainty
• - If unreported factors (e.g., fitness or matchup specifics) favor Bejlek, value may evaporate

Details

We find value on Nastasja Mariana Schunk (home) because the market prices Sara Bejlek (away) at 1.41 (implied ~70.9%), but the available research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history. With limited form and no clear injury/H2H edge in the provided data, we view the market’s ~71% estimate for Bejlek as overstated. We estimate Schunk's true win probability at ~42%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~2.381. At the current home price 2.80 (implied 35.7%), the home selection offers positive expected value (EV = 0.176 per unit staked). Key uncertainties (sparse recent-match detail, no H2H, potential unreported injuries) temper conviction, so we assign a medium risk level.

Key factors

• • Both players listed with identical career records (10-21) in the provided research
• • Market strongly favors away at 1.41 (implied ~70.9%) despite similar profiles
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no clear surface advantage in data
• • Limited recent-match details and no H2H or injury information increase uncertainty