Highlights

• • Market implies Bejlek win prob ~77.6% at 1.288
• • We estimate Schunk win prob ~40%, implying strong value at 3.65

Pros

• + Large margin between our fair odds (2.5 required) and current price (3.65)
• + Both players show similar form in the provided data, suggesting market may be overstating favorite

Cons

• - Research is sparse and identical for both players; unseen factors could justify the heavy favorite
• - High uncertainty due to lack of H2H, injury, and more granular form/surface data

Details

We see the market pricing Sara Bejlek as an overwhelming favorite (implied ~77.6% at 1.288) while the available research shows both players with essentially identical season records and no clear separating form, surface preference, injury note, or H2H advantage. Given the sparse and symmetric data (both listed as 10-21 in the provided profiles) the market probability looks overstated for Bejlek. We estimate a more conservative true probability for Nastasja Schunk of 40%, which makes the home moneyline 3.65 offer substantial value versus the market. We remain cautious because the dataset is limited and the heavy market favorite could reflect information not present in the research, but on the numbers we have the home line represents a positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical season records (10-21) in the provided profiles
• • Market heavily favors away at 1.288 (implied ~77.6%) despite lack of differentiating data
• • No injury notes, H2H, or surface advantage reported in the supplied research — elevates uncertainty