Nastasja Mariana Schunk vs Sara Bejlek

Highlights

• • Market implies away ~81% but research shows no clear dominance
• • Home needs only 50% true chance (odds 2.00) to be +EV; current 3.90 is well above that

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our fair odds estimate
• + Research indicates comparable records and surfaces, supporting a near-50/50 baseline

Cons

• - Research is limited and somewhat sparse; small-sample records increase uncertainty
• - Market may reflect info not in the provided research (recent form, fitness, or on-site updates)

Details

We view this as a matchup between two players with essentially identical profiles in the provided research (both show 10-21 career records, similar surface experience and recent form). The market price (Away 1.23 -> implied 81.3%; Home 3.90 -> implied 25.6%) appears to strongly favour the away player despite the research not showing a clear performance edge. Given the symmetry in the available data and absence of clear injury, surface or H2H advantages for the away player, we estimate the true win probability is roughly even. At our estimated true probability for the home of 50% the current home price (3.90) offers substantial value (EV = 0.50 * 3.90 - 1 = 0.95). We therefore recommend the home upset only because the quoted odds materially exceed the fair price implied by our assessment; if additional info (injury, head-to-head, or form differences) emerges that supports the heavy market favoritism for the away player, this view should be revised.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical recorded profiles in provided research (10-21), suggesting parity
• • Market strongly favors away (1.23) producing an implied probability (~81%) not supported by the provided data
• • No clear injury, surface advantage, or head-to-head edge is present in the research to justify the market skew