Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Schunk: 22.9% vs our estimate 35%
• • Min fair odds for Schunk based on our estimate: 2.857 (current 4.36 > fair)

Pros

• + Significant implied probability gap creates a strong positive EV at current price
• + Both players show similar records and surface experience in the provided data, supporting a more balanced true probability

Cons

• - Research is limited and partially duplicated; lack of detailed recent form/head-to-head reduces confidence
• - Underdog tennis bets are volatile and can be high variance despite positive EV

Details

We see a large market lean to Sara Bejlek (implied win probability ~81.5%) while the available background shows both players with near-identical career records and surface experience, suggesting the market is overstating the away favourite. With limited injury or form divergence in the research and both players having played clay and hard without a clear recent dominance, we estimate a materially higher true chance for Nastasja Schunk than the market-implied 22.9%. At decimal 4.36 the home price offers value versus our estimated probability. Our calculation uses the provided moneyline (4.36) for Schunk to compute EV.

Key factors

• • Market implies an 81.5% chance for Bejlek which is inconsistent with near-identical records and surfaces in the research
• • No clear injury or form advantage shown in the provided research for Bejlek
• • High upside from long price for Schunk if match is more evenly matched than the market assumes