Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 13.0 = 7.69%; our conservative estimate = 6%
• • Underdog would need >16.667 to be profitable at our estimate

Pros

• + If additional information later shows the favorite is injured or unable to play, the underdog price could become valuable
• + The large line discrepancy means a clear edge will be easy to spot if new info appears

Cons

• - Current prices do not offer positive EV on either side based on conservative probability estimates
• - Extremely short favorite price (1.02) requires near-certainty to be a value play, which is unlikely without extra evidence

Details

We view the market price (Away 1.02 / Home 13.0) as extremely skewed toward the away player. With no external data returned, we adopt a conservative approach and estimate Nastassja Wittmer's true chance to win at about 6%. That estimate is below the implied probability of the 13.0 price (7.69%), so the underdog does not offer positive expected value at current public odds. Conversely, the favorite would need a >98.04% true win probability to be a value bet at 1.02, which is implausible without clear, strong confirming information. Given high uncertainty and the implausibility of either side clearing the required thresholds for positive EV, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the away player with an implied probability ~98%
• • No independent data returned — we use a conservative estimate for the underdog (6%)
• • Required odds for profitable underdog bet (≈16.667) are far above the offered 13.0