Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for away: 72%
• • Positive EV at current odds: +0.08 (8% ROI)

Pros

• + Jaiani shows poor recent form and overall losing record
• + Current away odds (1.50) are above our breakeven threshold (1.389)

Cons

• - Research contains limited information on Claudia Martinez de Velasco, reducing confidence
• - Small-sample/short-career data for Jaiani may distort true matchup dynamics

Details

We view Claudia Martinez de Velasco (away) as the value side. The market prices the away player at 1.50 (implied win probability 66.7%). From the available research, Natali Jaiani has a poor overall record (10-21) and very weak recent form (mostly losses in her last results), which lowers Jaiani's true chance of upset. We estimate the away player's true win probability at 72%, higher than the market-implied 66.7%, creating positive edge. Using the quoted price of 1.50, EV = 0.72 * 1.50 - 1 = +0.08 (8% ROI). Key caveats: data is limited (no direct profile or H2H for Martinez in the research) so our confidence is moderate; nonetheless, at 1.50 the price offers value versus the weak form evidence for Jaiani.

Key factors

• • Natali Jaiani recent form is poor (10-21 career, heavy recent losses)
• • Market-implied probability for away (1.50) is lower than our estimated true probability
• • Limited data on opponent increases uncertainty but available evidence favors the away player