Natalia Pietras-Surmacz vs Vicky Van De Peer
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The away price (1.05) implies near-certainty for Van De Peer that is not supported by her career win rate and recent losses; the home underdog at 9.5 represents value if her upset chance is >= ~10.5% — we estimate ~14%.
Highlights
- • Implied probability for Van De Peer: ~95.2% (1/1.05)
- • We estimate the home upset probability at 14%, giving a positive EV vs the 9.5 price
Pros
- + Large payout (9.5) means even a modest upset probability creates strong EV
- + Away favorite’s career numbers and recent losses do not justify 95% market certainty
Cons
- - Limited information on the home player prevents a precise model — estimate relies on market discrepancy
- - Upset outcomes are inherently high variance despite positive EV
Details
We see a stark market imbalance: the away moneyline on Vicky Van De Peer (1.05) implies a ~95.2% chance of winning, which is inconsistent with the only available performance data. Van De Peer’s career win rate across 1,066 matches is ~52.4% and recent listed results include losses, so a near-certain market probability is likely overstated. Backing the home player at 9.5 decimal offers value if her chance of an upset is meaningfully above 10.53% (the break-even). Given the available evidence we conservatively estimate the home upset probability at 14%, producing a positive expected value at the quoted 9.5 price.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Van De Peer (1.05) is ~95.2%, which appears overstated relative to available performance data
- • Van De Peer’s career win rate is ~52.4% across 1,066 matches — not consistent with near-100% certainty
- • Recent listed results include losses, indicating vulnerability and supporting a non-trivial upset chance for the underdog