Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 2.60 = ~38.46%; our estimated true probability = 38%
• • Required fair odds for home to be +EV = 2.632 or greater

Pros

• + We applied a conservative probability estimate given absent data
• + Clear threshold (2.632) identified if odds improve

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific information increases uncertainty
• - Market favorite is short; taking the favorite at current price lacks EV

Details

We conservatively estimate Natalia Pietras (home) has a ~38% chance to win and Rianna Ioana Coreisa (away) ~62%, based on the market pricing and absent any additional form/injury/H2H data. The market-implied probabilities from the quoted decimals are ~38.46% for home (2.60) and ~68.97% for away (1.45) before adjusting for the bookie's overround. Using our conservative true probability for the home player (0.38), the expected value at the current home decimal (2.60) is EV = 0.38 * 2.60 - 1 = -0.012 (slightly negative). The away side is even less attractive versus our estimate: EV = 0.62 * 1.45 - 1 = -0.101. Because neither side yields positive expected value at the available prices, we recommend no bet. We would only back the home player if we could obtain at least decimal 2.632 or higher (reflecting our estimated true probability).

Key factors

• • No external form, injury, surface or H2H data available — conservative assumptions applied
• • Market prices strongly favor the away player (short favorite), producing a noticeable overround
• • Our conservative probability estimate yields no positive EV at current quotes