Highlights

• • Market favorite (Wikander) implied probability: ~84.8%
• • Our conservative estimated probability: 82.0% → no positive EV at 1.18

Pros

• + Conservative stance avoids chasing a thin edge given no corroborating research
• + Clear threshold provided (min decimal 1.219) to identify value if price improves

Cons

• - If our conservative probability underestimates Wikander, we may miss a small profitable opportunity
• - Lack of data increases uncertainty; model may be overly cautious

Details

We see a heavy market favorite in Louise Wikander at 1.18 (implied ~84.8%). With no external data returned by research, we adopt conservative assumptions: the market likely favors Wikander for ranking/form/surface reasons, but the lack of verifiable information increases uncertainty. We estimate Wikander's true win probability at 82.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of 1.219. At the current widely-available price of 1.18 the expected return is negative (EV = 0.82*1.18 - 1 = -0.0324). Because our conservative probability estimate is below the market-implied probability, there is no value to back the favorite and we recommend no bet. If better odds (>= 1.219) for Wikander appear, that would represent value under our assumptions. We avoid recommending the longshot (Natalie Cinkova at 4.40) because our conservative estimate assigns her a win chance far below the market-implied ~22.7%, and the required upside would need much longer odds to justify a bet.

Key factors

• • Heavy market favorite priced at 1.18 (implied ~84.8%)
• • No external research returned — we use conservative baseline assumptions
• • Small margin between our conservative estimate and market implied probability increases sensitivity to error