Natalija Senic vs Suana Tucakovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value on Natalija Senic at 1.123; the price implies an ~89% chance while our estimate is ~55%, making the bet negative EV.
Highlights
- • Home price 1.123 implies 89.0% chance — appears overpriced versus data.
- • Fair odds by our estimate would be ~1.818; current quote offers no value.
Pros
- + Clear, conservative view based on the supplied identical profiles (avoids overrating favorite).
- + We explicitly quantify discrepancy between market-implied and estimated probability.
Cons
- - Research dataset is sparse and symmetric, so our probability relies on conservative parity assumptions.
- - If there are external factors not in the provided data (e.g., match-day fitness, home-crowd, last-minute withdrawals) they could materially change probabilities.
Details
The market prices Natalija Senic at 1.123 (implied probability ~89.0%). Our assessment, based only on the provided player profiles, finds both players with nearly identical career records (10-21), similar recent form (losses on hard courts) and no clear H2H, surface or injury advantage for Senic that would justify an ~89% chance. Given the symmetry of the available data, we estimate Senic's true win probability at 55.0%, which corresponds to fair decimal odds of ~1.818. At the current quoted price of 1.123 the bet is materially negative EV (EV = 0.55 * 1.123 - 1 = -0.382), so we do not recommend backing the heavy favorite.
Key factors
- • Both players show virtually identical career records and recent-results data in the supplied profiles (10-21).
- • No supplied evidence of H2H, injury, or strong surface edge to justify a large gap in win probability.
- • Bookmaker-implied probability (89.0% for home) is far above what available data supports (~55%).