Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~80.7% while career numbers suggest otherwise
• • At our 60% estimate, betting Antonia yields EV ≈ +1.232 (very favorable)

Pros

• + Large positive EV at current away price (3.72)
• + Antonia's much larger sample size and winning record argue for higher true probability

Cons

• - Research record for Natalija is limited and recent form data is sparse/incomplete
• - Market may be reflecting local factors or recent unlisted form/injury information we do not have

Details

We observe a large disconnect between the market price and the players' profiles. The market implies Natalija Senic (home) has ~80.7% chance to win (1/1.239), which is inconsistent with the limited career data provided: Senic 10-21 (approx. 32% career win rate) versus Antonia Stoyanov 559-507 (approx. 52% career win rate) and much greater match experience. Both players have experience on clay/hard so surface alone does not clearly favor Senic. Given Antonia's deeper experience, positive overall record, and comparable surface history, we estimate Antonia's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 26.9% (1/3.72). At our estimated probability (60%), the away line 3.72 offers significant value (EV = 0.60*3.72 - 1 = 1.232). We therefore recommend betting the away player only because expected_value > 0 at the quoted price. We note high uncertainty due to sparse recent form details and potential local/tournament effects that could explain the market price, so downside risk is significant.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability heavily favors home (80.7%) but conflicts with career records
• • Antonia Stoyanov has far greater experience and a positive career win rate (559-507)
• • Both players have clay/hard exposure — no clear surface edge for the market favorite
• • Recent match listings are both losses and sparse — increases uncertainty
• • Tournament stage (ITF semifinal) may favor experienced player handling pressure