Highlights

• • Book implied away probability ~28.5% vs our ~50% estimate
• • Required odds to break even at our estimate are 2.00; market offers 3.51

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at current market price
• + Decision based on parity evident in the provided performance data

Cons

• - Limited dataset — market may be pricing in ranking/seed or other info not included in the research
• - Small-sample variance in ITF events can produce unpredictable outcomes

Details

We see both players with virtually identical profiles in the provided data (10-21 career records, play clay and hard, similar recent results), which implies near-parity. The market prices Natalija Senic at 1.264 (implied ~79.1%) and Draginja Vukovic at 3.51 (implied ~28.5%). The book's pricing implies a very large edge for Senic that is not supported by the available performance data. We estimate Vukovic's true win probability at ~50.0% given the matched records, surface exposure and no injury or form advantage evident for Senic. At that real probability the underdog price 3.51 represents clear value: EV = 0.50 * 3.51 - 1 = 0.755 (75.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal odds to justify a bet at our estimated probability is 2.000; current 3.51 comfortably exceeds that. We note the risk that the bookmaker may be reflecting ranking/seed or other information not present in the provided research, so our estimate is conservative but finds strong value on the away side.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and surface experience in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors the home player despite no evidence of a clear performance advantage
• • No injuries, recent form edge, or surface specialization apparent in research to justify the short favorite