Natalija Senic vs Sara Mikaca
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The supplied data shows no clear edge for Natalija Senic but the market prices her as a heavy favorite; Sara Mikaca at 6.00 looks strongly overpriced versus our 50% win estimate, presenting clear value.
Highlights
- • Book odds: Home 1.11 (≈90.1% implied), Away 6.00 (≈16.7% implied)
- • Our estimated true win chance for away: 50% → EV at 6.00 = +2.00 (200% ROI)
Pros
- + Very large positive EV at current away price
- + Research does not supply a clear performance gap favoring the heavy favorite
Cons
- - Limited data and no head-to-head or injury specifics in the supplied research increase uncertainty
- - Market may be reflecting information not present in our sources (late withdrawal, fitness, etc.), so price could be justified
Details
We find a large pricing discrepancy between the market and the information available. The book prices Natalija Senic at 1.11 (implied ~90.1%) and Sara Mikaca at 6.00 (implied ~16.7%). Our research shows near-identical profiles and recent records for both players (both 10-21, same surfaces and comparable recent results), with no clear advantage to the home player in the supplied data. Given the lack of evidence supporting a 90%+ win probability for the home player, we assess the true head-to-head probability for Sara Mikaca around 50%. At that probability, the current away price of 6.00 offers very strong positive expected value (EV = 0.5*6.00 - 1 = +2.00). We therefore recommend backing the away player because the bookmaker's implied probability (16.7%) substantially undervalues our estimated win chance (50%).
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided research
- • Book market implies an extreme favorite (home) without supporting evidence in the supplied data
- • Current away price (6.00) implies a very low win probability (≈16.7%) that conflicts with our 50% estimate