Natalija Senic vs Zara Stipcevic

Highlights

• • Using available data we estimate Zara has ~67.7% chance to win
• • At 8.0 decimal odds this implies +4.419 EV (very large theoretical edge)

Pros

• + Huge discrepancy between our probability estimate and market price yields strong theoretical EV
• + Betting the away side is supported by Natalija's weak career record and recent losses

Cons

• - No information on Zara Stipcevic in the provided research — large model uncertainty
• - Market may incorporate opponent-specific information or conditions not available in the research; pick is high risk

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 1.07 => implied ~93.5% / Away 8.0 => implied 12.5%) to the available player data. Natalija Senic's career record (10–21, 31 matches) implies a long-run win rate near 32.3%, and her recent results show multiple losses, which makes the market's 93% implied probability for her winning implausible based on the provided data. With no data on Zara Stipcevic available in the research, the most defensible estimate is to take Natalija's empirical win rate (0.323) as the home win probability and use the complement (0.677) for the away probability. At an estimated true probability for Zara of ~67.7% versus the market price of 8.0 (implied 12.5%), there is extreme value on the away moneyline. Using the current quoted price (8.0), expected value = p * odds - 1 = 0.677419 * 8.0 - 1 = +4.419 (441.9% ROI). This is a high-uncertainty, high-discrepancy situation driven by very limited opponent data; we therefore flag the pick as high risk despite the large theoretical EV.

Key factors

• • Natalija Senic career record 10–21 (31 matches) implying ~32.3% win rate
• • Recent results show multiple recent losses, suggesting current form is weak
• • Market prices massively favor Natalija (1.07) which strongly conflicts with her empirical win rate
• • No opponent data for Zara in the supplied research increases uncertainty