Highlights

• • Book implied away probability 12.5% vs our estimate 45%
• • Minimum fair odds for Kolonus at our estimate: 2.222 — current 8.0 is significantly higher

Pros

• + Very large discrepancy between market price and our estimated probability yields high EV
• + Both players' records and recent form do not support the extreme favorite pricing

Cons

• - Extremely short favourite (1.07) could indicate hidden info or market/data error (risk of withdrawal or walkover)
• - Limited data in research (no H2H, no explicit injury notes) means our estimate is conservative but still uncertain

Details

We see a large market disconnect: the book implies Natalija Senic has ~93.5% win probability (1.07) while Zuzanna Kolonus is priced at 12.5% (8.0). The player profiles in the provided research show nearly identical records (10-21), identical recent form notes, and no injury or surface-specific advantage for Senic that would justify a 7.5x pricing gap. We conservatively estimate Senic's true win probability at 55% and Kolonus at 45% based on parity of records and lack of corrective evidence for an extreme favorite. At an estimated 45% win chance for Kolonus, the current away price of 8.0 produces substantial positive expected value (EV = 0.45*8.0 - 1 = 2.6). The min fair decimal price to make this a break-even bet for our estimate is 2.222; 8.0 is well above that, so the away side offers clear value unless there is hidden information (injury, withdrawal, or data error) not present in the research.

Key factors

• • Market implied probabilities are extreme and inconsistent with players' nearly identical profiles (both 10-21)
• • No injuries, surface issues, or H2H info in research to justify a 93% favourite
• • Current away price (8.0) is far above our fair threshold (2.222) given estimated probability