Nathan Gold vs Mainguy. Clement
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value identified: the market prices the home player too short relative to our conservative 52% win estimate, producing a negative expected value at current odds.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 57.8% vs our estimate 52%
- • Fair decimal price per our estimate is 1.923; market is 1.73 (no value)
Pros
- + We use conservative assumptions due to missing match-specific info
- + Clear numeric comparison between implied market odds and our probability
Cons
- - Estimate is conservative and could be wrong if there are unobserved edges (injury, surface advantage, recent form)
- - No independent data sources available to refine the probability
Details
We take a conservative view due to lack of independent recent form, surface, injury, and H2H data. The market prices Nathan Gold (home) at 1.73 (implied ~57.8%) and Mainguy. Clement (away) at 2.02 (implied ~49.5%); the book contains roughly a 7.3% vig. Our conservative estimated true win probability for the home player is 52% (0.52). At that estimate the fair decimal price is 1.923, which is materially above the available home price of 1.73, so there is no positive expected value on either side at the quoted prices. Therefore we do not recommend a bet because the market is richer than our conservative estimate and the vig further reduces value.
Key factors
- • No independent recent form/injury/H2H data available — we apply conservative priors
- • Market-implied probability for home (57.8%) exceeds our conservative estimate (52%)
- • Observable book vig (~7.3%) further erodes potential value