Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Lammons is 33.3% (3.00)
• • We estimate Lammons' true probability at 38%, producing ~14% ROI at current price

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the quoted 3.00 price
• + Opponent shows poor recent form and no grass-court history in the provided data

Cons

• - Very limited data on Lammons in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Masabayashi may still be favored for reasons not captured in the supplied sources

Details

We find value on the home side (Nathaniel Lammons) because the market prices him at decimal 3.00 (implied win probability 33.3%) while the available research on the opponent, Tomohiro Masabayashi, points to a below-average record (13-27) and no recorded grass-court experience. Masabayashi's recent form in the provided sample is poor, which makes the heavy-market favoritism (1.372) look overstated on grass. Given the uncertainty around Lammons in the supplied data but weighing Masabayashi's clear weaknesses on non-grass surfaces and recent losses, we estimate Lammons' true win probability materially above the market-implied 33.3%, producing positive EV at the quoted 3.00 price.

Key factors

• • Masabayashi's career record 13-27 indicates weak overall form
• • Masabayashi has only recorded matches on clay/hard in the research — no grass experience
• • Market implies 33.3% for Lammons (decimal 3.00) which we judge too low given opponent weaknesses