Highlights

• • Masabayashi's career win-rate ~32.5% and bad recent form
• • Home at 2.65 requires only ~37.7% true win prob to be +EV; we estimate ~60%

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between market-implied probability and documented player form
• + Large margin of EV at the quoted price (≈0.59 ROI)

Cons

• - No direct data provided on Nathaniel Lammons to cross-check our estimate
• - Small-sample career data and lower-tier event results add variance risk

Details

We find value backing Nathaniel Lammons (home). The market has Tomohiro Masabayashi as a strong favorite at 1.45 (implied ~69%), but the only provided performance data for Masabayashi shows a weak career win-rate (13-27, ~32.5%) and very poor recent form in hard-court M15 events. Given that evidence, the market appears to be overrating Masabayashi. Conservatively adjusting for matchup uncertainty but heavily discounting Masabayashi's form, we estimate Lammons' true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 31% for the home side — producing clear positive EV at the available home price of 2.65.

Key factors

• • Masabayashi career record 13-27 (≈32.5% win rate) indicates low baseline win probability
• • Recent form shown in the research is poor on hard courts (multiple recent losses)
• • Market-implied probability (away 1.45 → ≈69%) conflicts with documented form, suggesting value on the underdog