Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~82% for Ohwaki, which conflicts with her 10-21 season record
• • Home at 3.90 requires only ~25.6% win probability to break even; our 35% estimate exceeds that

Pros

• + Clear numerical discrepancy between Ohwaki's documented win rate and the heavy market favoritism
• + High decimal price (3.90) gives a sizable margin over our break-even threshold

Cons

• - No specific data provided for Natsuki Yamagami (form, ranking, injuries), creating significant uncertainty
• - Bookmakers may have inside/contextual info (injury, matchup, travel) not present in the research

Details

We compare the market prices (Away Yui Ohwaki 1.22 / Home Natsuki Yamagami 3.90) to the limited performance evidence available. Yui Ohwaki's documented season record (10-21 across 31 matches) and a string of recent losses on hard suggest her underlying win rate is substantially lower than the ~82% implied by the 1.22 price. With no supporting data showing Natsuki Yamagami is a clear inferior, the market looks to be over-favoring Ohwaki. Using a conservative adjusted estimate that accounts for sample limitations and possible differences between opponents, we estimate Natsuki Yamagami's true chance to win at 35%. At the listed home price 3.90 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 3.90 - 1 = 0.365), so backing the home underdog represents value versus the current market. We note elevated uncertainty due to absent head-to-head, surface confirmation, and Yamagami-specific data, so the edge should be treated as opportunistic rather than certain.

Key factors

• • Yui Ohwaki season record 10-21 indicates a low realized win rate versus the 1.22 market price
• • Recent losses on hard courts in the provided recent-match snippets reduce confidence in Ohwaki's form
• • No provided data on Natsuki Yamagami increases uncertainty but mitigates assumption that Ohwaki should be ~82% favorite