Natsuki Yoshimoto vs Sae Noguchi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing the away player at 2.68 — our estimated win chance (~47%) implies the fair price (~2.13) is well below the market quote, yielding positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market-implied away probability ≈ 37.3% vs our estimate 47%
- • Estimated EV on away at current odds ≈ +0.26 units per 1 unit staked
Pros
- + Clear numerical value: current odds materially exceed our break-even odds
- + No injury/news or surface advantage observed to justify market gap
Cons
- - Both players have poor and similar recent form, increasing match variance
- - Limited data and no H2H reduces confidence in the edge; outcome still uncertain
Details
Both players present almost identical career records and recent form, so we treat the matchup as near-even but give a small edge to the away player based on neutral data and no clear injury/news for the home favorite. The market implies the away player has ~37% chance at 2.68 (1/2.68 = 0.373); we estimate the away player's true win probability at ~47% based on parity of records and lack of distinguishing factors, which converts to value at the available price. Using our probability, the required fair decimal price is about 2.13, substantially below the current 2.68 quote, producing positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Practically identical career records and recent results for both players
- • Market strongly favors home (1.43) despite no clear performance edge in the data
- • No reported injuries or H2H data to justify large price gap, creating potential value on the away side