Highlights

• • Home price 1.40 implies ~71% win chance which is not supported by the data
• • Away at 2.75 yields ~23.8% ROI using our 45% win probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear pricing discrepancy between implied market probability and our estimate
• + Simple, conservative model with equalized player form reduces overfitting risk

Cons

• - Very limited and noisy data (lower-tier events, identical recent results) increases uncertainty
• - No head-to-head or injury information to further validate the estimate

Details

We find value on Shiho Tsujioka (away). The market-implied probability for Natsuki Yoshimoto at 1.40 is ~71%, which is implausible given the research: both players have nearly identical career records (10-21), identical recent results, no reported injuries, and no clear surface or head-to-head edge. Conservatively we assign a small home edge (roughly 55% for Yoshimoto / 45% for Tsujioka) based on nominal home advantage in neutral data-poor situations. At an estimated true probability of 45% for Tsujioka, the current decimal price 2.75 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.75 - 1 = 0.2375). The away price is sufficiently above the fair threshold (min required decimal odds 2.222) to justify a value bet despite noisy data.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability (71%) appears overstated given identical player profiles
• • Both players have nearly identical records and recent form—no clear performance edge
• • Current away price (2.75) exceeds the break-even odds for our estimated true probability