Highlights

• • Home break-even probability at 2.40 is ~41.7%; our estimate is 40.0%
• • Current market prices do not present positive expected value under conservative assumptions

Pros

• + We apply a conservative estimate to avoid overconfidence given missing data
• + Clear quantitative threshold (min_required_decimal_odds = 2.50) if prices move

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of surface, form, injury, and H2H information
• - Small differences between implied and estimated probabilities could change the decision

Details

No external data was available, so we take a conservative market-based approach. Current decimal prices imply the away favorite is strong (1.52) and the home underdog is 2.40. The break-even probability for a home back at 2.40 is 41.67% (1/2.4). Given full uncertainty on surface, form, injuries and H2H, we conservatively estimate the home player's true win probability at 40.0%, below the 41.67% needed to make 2.40 +EV. Using the current quoted price for the home side (2.40) yields EV = 0.40 * 2.40 - 1 = -0.04 (negative), so we do not recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • No match-specific information available (surface, form, injuries, H2H) — increases uncertainty
• • Market favors the away player strongly (1.52) implying a >65% raw chance before vig
• • Break-even threshold for the home price (2.40) is ~41.7%; our conservative true probability estimate (40.0%) is below that