Highlights

• • Yoshimoto implied by market: ~97.09% win probability at 1.03
• • Our estimated true probability based on provided data: ~32.26%, fair odds ~3.10

Pros

• + Clear quantitative mismatch between market price and documented player win rate
• + Data-driven conservative estimate avoids betting on a heavily over-priced favorite

Cons

• - Opponent (Sa Rang Lim) data is missing, so our estimate carries uncertainty
• - Small sample and limited recent-match details reduce precision of the probability estimate

Details

We base our model on the only provided player data: Natsuki Yoshimoto has a 10-21 career record over 31 matches (win rate = 10/31 ≈ 32.26%) and weak recent form (losses noted in the last listed events). The market moneyline of 1.03 implies a ~97.09% win probability for Yoshimoto, which is massively out of line with her documented win rate and available form data. There is no information provided on Sa Rang Lim to justify such heavy market favoritism. Using Yoshimoto's observed win rate as our baseline estimated_true_probability (0.322581), the fair decimal price would be ~3.100; at the offered 1.03 there is a large negative expected value. Given the disconnect and the lack of opponent data, we do not see value on either side at the current quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Yoshimoto career record 10-21 (31 matches) -> win rate ≈ 32.26%
• • Market price (1.03) implies ~97.09% chance, a large divergence from available data
• • No data provided on opponent Sa Rang Lim, increasing uncertainty and preventing justification of extreme favorite pricing