Natsuki Yoshimoto vs Soo Ha Jang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend the away side (Soo Ha Jang) because the provided profiles indicate near-parity while the market prices the away at ~5.6% — we estimate ~48%, producing very large positive EV at current odds 18.0.
Highlights
- • Profiles and recent results show parity between the two players
- • Current away price (18.0) is far above our break-even odds (~2.083)
Pros
- + Large theoretical edge: current market price implies an implausibly tiny win probability for the away player
- + No injuries or other disqualifying info in the provided research to justify the market gap
Cons
- - Provided data is limited (no H2H, no match-day conditions, no explicit injury or withdrawal notes) — market may reflect unprovided information
- - This is a high-variance bet: heavy underdog outcomes are rare even when mispriced
Details
We find clear value on the away moneyline (Soo Ha Jang). The public market price (Home 1.01 / Away 18.0) implies an away win probability of ~5.6%, but the research shows both players have nearly identical profiles (career span, 10-21 records, similar recent results and surfaces). There is no evidence in the provided material of a severe form or injury gap that would justify the market treating Natsuki Yoshimoto as a near-automatic winner. Based on parity in record, surface exposure and recent results, we estimate Soo Ha Jang's true chance materially higher than 5.6% — we conservatively estimate it at 48%. At that probability, the break-even decimal odds are ~2.083; the current quoted 18.0 is far above that, producing a strongly positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Players have nearly identical records and recent form (both 10-21 in the provided data)
- • Both appear to play same surfaces (Clay, Hard) — no surface advantage shown in research
- • Market odds are extreme and not supported by the parity shown in available profiles (possible mispricing)