Nazim Makhlouf vs Alexandre Aubriot

Highlights

• • Aubriot favored hard by the market (1.32) but would need >75.8% true chance to be +EV
• • Given limited info on Nazim Makhlouf, the underdog at 3.15 does not present clear value either

Pros

• + We used conservative probability estimates based on the provided career and recent form data
• + Clear arithmetic shows the favorite is overpriced vs our estimate (negative EV)

Cons

• - Very limited information on the opponent Makhlouf prevents identifying underdog value
• - Surface and other contextual/health factors are not available in the research, increasing outcome uncertainty

Details

We compared the market prices (Aubriot 1.32, Makhlouf 3.15) to a conservative true-win estimate for the market favorite Alexandre Aubriot. Aubriot's career record (21-28) and recent documented losses on clay in August 2025 reduce our confidence that his true win probability exceeds the market-implied break-even of ~75.8% for the 1.32 price. Using a cautious estimated true probability of 60% for Aubriot, the expected return at the quoted 1.32 is negative (EV = 0.60*1.32 - 1 = -0.208), so there is no value on the favorite. The underdog price (Nazim Makhlouf at 3.15) would require a true win probability >31.75% to be profitable; absent any independent data on Makhlouf and given Aubriot's mixed form, we cannot confidently project Makhlouf's win chance above that threshold. Therefore we decline to recommend a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Aubriot is priced very short (1.32) — market implies ~75.8% win probability
• • Aubriot's documented career record is sub-.500 (21-28) and recent losses on clay in Aug 2025
• • No available performance or ranking data for Nazim Makhlouf in the provided research, increasing uncertainty