Nazim Makhlouf vs Hudson Baxter
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at the current price: the 1.07 market for Nazim implies a win probability higher than we can justify from available data, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~93.5% for home at 1.07; our best estimate is 92%
- • Hudson Baxter's recent form and overall win rate undermine his chances but do not justify the extreme market gap
Pros
- + Home is a clear market favorite, which aligns with Hudson's weak career numbers
- + Limited upside for the underdog given documented losses
Cons
- - Price on the favorite is too short to offer positive EV based on our probability estimate
- - Research set lacks direct data on Nazim Makhlouf, increasing uncertainty about the true gap
Details
We compare the market price (Nazim Makhlouf 1.07, implied ~93.5%) to our estimated true probability for the home win. Hudson Baxter's career record (10-21) and poor recent form strongly reduce his upside; however the market is pricing Nazim at an overwhelmingly high probability that we cannot justify given only the available data. Using Hudson's documented struggles (low overall win rate and recent losses on hard surfaces), we estimate Nazim's true win probability at 92.0%, which is below the market-implied 93.5% required to make backing the favorite profitable. Therefore there is no positive expected value at the current price of 1.07 and we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Hudson Baxter career record 10-21 (low overall win rate)
- • Recent match-level form shows multiple recent losses, indicating poor momentum
- • Market-implied probability for Makhlouf (≈93.5%) is higher than our best-supported estimate (92%), leaving no value