Highlights

• • Renard's observed win rate in research: 31.25%
• • Home implied probability at 2.75 is ~36.36% vs our estimated 68.75%

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market-implied probabilities and the supplied player win-rate data
• + High theoretical ROI (≈89.1%) at current home price under our estimate

Cons

• - No direct stats or form data provided for Nehira Sanon (unknown opponent quality)
• - Renard's small sample and context of matches may not fully represent true matchup dynamics

Details

We compare the market pricing (Elise Renard at 1.388 implied ~72.1%) to the only available player history: Renard's career record of 10-22 (10 wins in 32 matches = 31.25%). Using Renard's observed win rate (0.3125) as the best available baseline, we assign the residual probability to Nehira Sanon (0.6875). The market therefore appears to heavily overvalue Renard and undervalue Sanon: at the current home price of 2.75 (implied 36.36%) we find a large edge. EV calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.6875 * 2.75 - 1 = 0.890625 (≈0.891), i.e. ~89.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake relative to our probability estimate. We note substantial uncertainty because we have no direct data on Nehira and Renard's sample is limited, but based solely on the supplied research the price on the home side offers clear value.

Key factors

• • Elise Renard career record 10-22 (31.25% win rate) from supplied research
• • Market strongly favors Renard (1.388) implying ~72.1% win probability
• • No data provided for Nehira Sanon increases uncertainty despite apparent market mispricing