Highlights

• • Away favored strongly (1.361) on clay
• • Our conservative estimate (73%) is essentially the market view, so no positive edge

Pros

• + Market price is consistent and likely reflects available information
• + Surface is specified (clay), reducing one source of uncertainty

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H) to justify outperforming market
• - Bookmaker margin is significant, shrinking any slim potential edges

Details

Market prices show Carmen Gallardo Guevara as a clear favorite (1.361) on clay. With only surface information available and no reliable form, ranking, injury, or H2H details in the Research, we must be conservative. The book implied probability for the away player is ~73.5% (1/1.361) and the book margin is appreciable (~8.6%), so there is no clear informational edge. Based on the limited inputs, our estimated true win probability for the away player is 0.73, which is effectively in line with the market; this produces a slightly negative expected value at the current price. Therefore we do not recommend betting either side at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Only surface (clay) provided; no form, ranking, injury, or H2H data available
• • Away is heavy favorite in market (1.361) with implied probability ~73.5%
• • Bookmaker margin is sizable (~8.6%), reducing potential value