Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Seifert: 68% (conservative)
• • Current available price (1.40) yields negative EV (-0.048) vs our estimate

Pros

• + Market consensus clearly identifies a favorite, reducing variance if backing the favorite
• + If additional positive info on Seifert (fitness/form) appears, price may be justified

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.40) offers no value versus our conservative probability estimate
• - Lack of surface/form/injury/H2H data increases outcome uncertainty

Details

We view Julius Seifert as the market favorite (1.40) but, given no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data, we apply a conservative true-probability adjustment below the market-implied 71% to avoid overconfidence. We estimate Seifert's true win probability at 68% (Suarez 32%). At that estimate the minimum fair decimal price to make Seifert +EV is 1.471, which is higher than the available 1.40, producing a negative expected value. Conversely, Suarez at 2.80 implies a required true probability of 35.7% to break even; our 32% estimate for Suarez makes the underdog negative EV as well. The market shows an overround and the lack of situational information (surface, recent form, injuries) increases uncertainty, so we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Seifert (1.40) implying ~71% before overround
• • No available data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H — we apply conservative adjustment
• • Calculated fair price (1.471) for Seifert is above quoted 1.40, producing negative EV