Netherlands vs Argentina
Tennis
2025-09-12 05:10
Start: 2025-09-12 12:00
Summary
Pick: away
EV: 0.01175
Current Odds
Home 2.01|Away 1.806
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Netherlands_Argentina_2025-09-12
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive expected value on Argentina at 1.775 assuming a conservative 57% true win probability, but uncertainty about surface and rosters keeps this a low-margin play.
Highlights
- • Argentina priced at 1.775 implies 56.3% market probability
- • Our conservative model gives Argentina ~57%, creating ~1.2% ROI
Pros
- + Small, measurable positive EV at current widely-available price
- + Conservative probability assumption reduces chance of overreach
Cons
- - Key inputs (court surface, home advantage, player availability) are unknown and could overturn the edge
- - Edge is small — susceptible to bookmaker margin and price movement
Details
Current market odds price Argentina at 1.775 (implied win probability ~56.3%). Given the absence of roster, surface and injury information, we take a conservative stance and estimate Argentina's true chance at 57.0%. At that probability the 1.775 price yields a small positive edge (EV = 0.57 * 1.775 - 1 = +0.01175), so the away side offers marginal value versus the bookmakers. Key uncertainties (venue, surface and team selection typical in Davis Cup ties) limit conviction, so we quantify only a modest edge rather than a large lean.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Argentina ~56.3% at 1.775
- • Unknown venue/surface and team selection increases uncertainty
- • Conservative estimate places Argentina slightly above market (~57%) producing small edge