Highlights

• • Normalized market probabilities then shrank toward 50% to limit overconfidence
• • Home at 2.35 shows ~2.9% expected ROI based on our estimate

Pros

• + Quantified, conservative approach that controls for market vig and regression to the mean
• + Identified a positive expected-value opportunity at current public odds

Cons

• - No external information (surface, form, injuries, H2H), so the model relies heavily on price-based inference
• - Edge is small (~2.9% ROI) and therefore sensitive to estimation error or late information

Details

We have only market prices and no external form/injury data, so we remove the market vig, normalize implied probabilities, then apply a conservative shrinkage toward 50% (60% market weight, 40% regression-to-mean) to estimate true win chances. Market-implied (vig-adjusted) probabilities are ~39.60% home / 60.40% away. After conservative shrinkage we estimate the home win probability at ~43.76%. At the current home moneyline of 2.35 this yields a small positive edge: EV = 0.4376 * 2.35 - 1 ≈ +0.0289 (≈2.89% ROI). The away price (1.54) offers a negative expected return under our estimate. Given the lack of specific player/context information we remain conservative; the identified edge on the home side is small but present at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Market prices discount away player heavily (1.54) after vig removal
• • Conservative probability estimate derived by normalizing implied odds then shrinking 60/40 to market/50% mean
• • Small positive EV on the home line (2.35) but edge is modest and subject to high variance