Niccolo Catini vs Vadym Konovchuk
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market overstates the favourite: Catini is clearly the stronger player, but at 1.067 we do not find value — implied probability exceeds our estimate.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker implies ~93.7% for Catini; our estimate is ~88%
- • EV at current home price is negative (≈ -0.061), so no bet recommended
Pros
- + Clear form/experience advantage for Catini
- + Match played on hard courts, a surface both have recent exposure to
Cons
- - Bookmaker price compresses potential edge to near-zero/negative
- - Small sample sizes and limited data increase uncertainty around probability estimates
Details
We compare the market price (Home 1.067, implied ≈93.7%) to our estimated win probability for Niccolo Catini. The available player data shows Catini with substantially more match volume and a stronger record than Vadym Konovchuk, but not to the extreme degree implied by the market. Konovchuk's sample is small and poor (3-12), and both players have recent activity on hard courts, which favors Catini. We estimate Catini's true win probability at 88%, which produces a negative expected value at the current home price (EV ≈ -0.061). Because the bookmaker's price implies a higher probability than our model supports, there is no positive-value wager on either side at the present quotes.
Key factors
- • Market heavy-favourite pricing (home 1.067) implies ≈93.7% win chance
- • Catini has more match experience and a better overall record than Konovchuk
- • Konovchuk's limited sample (3-12) and recent form are weak, but not enough to justify the market's margin