Niccolo Catini vs Arthur Weber

Highlights

• • Market overprices Weber relative to normalized win-rate and short-term form
• • Catini's price (3.27) is above our minimum fair odds (2.612) — represents value

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value vs current market price
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces a substantial ROI

Cons

• - Catini's overall record and mixed recent form make this outcome less certain
• - ITF-level matches can be high-variance; small-sample recent form can swing results

Details

We compare the market prices to a model-based read built from the players' records and recent form. Arthur Weber is the market favourite at 1.299 (implied ~77%), but his career win-rate (25/39 ≈ 64%) and recent wins do not justify a ~77% chance versus Niccolo Catini, who despite a weaker overall record (25/51 ≈ 49%) still represents a meaningful upset probability. Normalizing career win-rates gives a baseline Catini chance ≈43%, then adjusting for recent form (Weber's stronger short-term results and Catini's mixed form) we reduce Catini's estimated true probability to 38.3%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is 2.612; the market is offering 3.27 for Catini which yields positive expected value. Using the current odds (3.27) produces an EV of ≈0.252 per unit (25.2% ROI). We recommend taking Catini only because the price implies a ~30.6% chance while our conservative estimate is ~38.3%, generating value. This recommendation assumes no late injuries or court-surface advantage information beyond both players having experience on hard and clay.

Key factors

• • Weber is the market favourite with implied probability ≈77%, which looks overstated versus available performance data
• • Career win-rate: Weber 25/39 (~64%), Catini 25/51 (~49%); normalization + form adjustment gives Catini ~38.3% true chance
• • Both players have match experience on hard and clay; no reported injuries or absences in the provided data