Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (83.1%) is substantially above our estimate (72%)
• • At current price EV is negative (~-13.4% ROI per unit), so no profitable value

Pros

• + Catini is the more experienced player and the clear market favorite
• + Both players have experience on hard courts, reducing surface surprise risk

Cons

• - Catini's overall win rate is not dominant (~49%), making an 83% market price unlikely to be true
• - Gunawan's small sample creates variance and upset potential that the market may be underestimating

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Niccolo Catini (1 / 1.203 = 83.1%) to our independent estimate of his true win probability (~72%). Catini is the clear favorite in the listing and benefits from far greater match experience (51 matches) versus Gunawan (6 matches). However, Catini's career win rate is roughly breakeven (~49%) and recent results look mixed, so assigning an >83% true chance is not justified. Gunawan has a small sample size and lower recorded win percentage (2-4), but small samples carry high variance and some upside on home/venue familiarity. Given our estimated true probability (72%), the current price of 1.203 yields negative expected value (EV = 0.72 * 1.203 - 1 ≈ -0.134), so there is no value on the heavily-favored home moneyline at available prices. A value bet would require odds of ~1.389 or higher on Catini (i.e., the market would need to underprice his chance relative to our 72% estimate), which is well above current lines.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Catini (implied 83.1%) while his career and recent form do not justify that level
• • Experience gap: Catini has far more professional matches (51) vs Gunawan (6), lowering upset risk but not to 83%
• • Small sample and higher variance for Gunawan means outcome uncertainty is higher than market implies