Niccolo Catini vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find modest value on Niccolo Catini at 2.55 because his true win probability (estimated 42%) is higher than market-implied 39.2%, producing ~7.1% EV.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability: 39.2% (odds 2.55); our estimate: 42.0%
- • Minimum fair decimal odds for home to be break-even: 2.381; current is 2.55
Pros
- + Price (2.55) offers a measurable edge vs our conservative probability
- + Both players are active on hard courts, reducing a surface-based mismatch risk
Cons
- - Edge is modest and relies on a small gap in perceived probability — susceptible to variance
- - Limited detailed performance/injury data increases uncertainty in the true probability estimate
Details
The market prices the away player (Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong) as a clear favorite at 1.467 (implied 68.1%). The research shows both players have similar overall records and recent activity on hard courts, with Leong slightly ahead in raw wins but not by a margin that justifies the heavy market probability. We conservatively estimate Niccolo Catini's true win probability at 42.0% versus the market-implied 39.2% for the home side. At decimal 2.55 this produces positive expected value: EV = 0.42 * 2.55 - 1 = 0.071 (7.1% ROI). We used the provided current odds (2.55) for the EV calculation and required minimum fair price (1/0.42 = 2.381). Given the small data margins, surface parity (hard) and comparable recent match loads, the home price offers a modest value edge.
Key factors
- • Both players have similar overall records and recent hard-court activity
- • Market strongly favors the away player despite only a modest record differential
- • Current home price (2.55) exceeds our break-even threshold given a conservative true probability