Niccolo Catini vs Vadym Konovchuk

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~93.7% for Catini; our estimate is ~88%
• • EV at current home price is negative (≈ -0.061), so no bet recommended

Pros

• + Clear form/experience advantage for Catini
• + Match played on hard courts, a surface both have recent exposure to

Cons

• - Bookmaker price compresses potential edge to near-zero/negative
• - Small sample sizes and limited data increase uncertainty around probability estimates

Details

We compare the market price (Home 1.067, implied ≈93.7%) to our estimated win probability for Niccolo Catini. The available player data shows Catini with substantially more match volume and a stronger record than Vadym Konovchuk, but not to the extreme degree implied by the market. Konovchuk's sample is small and poor (3-12), and both players have recent activity on hard courts, which favors Catini. We estimate Catini's true win probability at 88%, which produces a negative expected value at the current home price (EV ≈ -0.061). Because the bookmaker's price implies a higher probability than our model supports, there is no positive-value wager on either side at the present quotes.

Key factors

• • Market heavy-favourite pricing (home 1.067) implies ≈93.7% win chance
• • Catini has more match experience and a better overall record than Konovchuk
• • Konovchuk's limited sample (3-12) and recent form are weak, but not enough to justify the market's margin