Highlights

• • Book market: Home 1.552 (≈64.5% implied) vs Away 2.27 (≈44.1% implied).
• • Our model: Renard ~65% => EV ≈ +0.476 per unit at current odds.

Pros

• + Large gap between book-implied probability and our estimated true probability for Renard
• + Clear quantitative EV at current widely-available price 2.27

Cons

• - Limited opponent-specific data for Philippe Renard in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Ifi's sample size and match context may hide situational factors (surface, matchup) not fully captured here

Details

We find value on Philippe Renard (away) because the market is pricing Nicolas Ifi as a clear favorite (home 1.552 => implied ~64.5%), but Ifi's documented results suggest a much lower true win expectancy. Ifi's career 9-20 record (≈31% raw win rate) and multiple recent losses indicate he is over-priced by the market here. Using a conservative adjustment for limited sample size and recent form, we estimate Ifi's true chance at ~35% and Renard's at ~65%. At that estimated probability, the away price 2.27 yields a strongly positive expected value (EV = 0.65*2.27 - 1 ≈ +0.476 per unit). The book's implied probability for Renard (≈44.1%) is far lower than our 65% estimate, so the away side represents clear value even after accounting for book margin and uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Nicolas Ifi career record is 9-20 (≈31% raw win rate) indicating long-term underperformance
• • Recent documented losses in 2025 suggest current form is poor rather than improving
• • Bookmakers price Ifi at ~64.5% implied probability, creating value on Renard at 2.27 (implied ~44.1%)